Update: The Coup-o-meter has moved one notch toward democracy today. Many of our updates focus on specific events, but today we're looking at a combination of factors that point to increasing momentum for a peaceful transition of power. At the same time, Trump's continued insistence on pushing the false story that the election was rigged has further eroded American's faith in our democratic system, a development that could mean long term harm to the country.

Among the important developments that led us to move the meter: A series of losses for the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania courts (source, source, source), Wisconsin and Arizona certifying their votes (source), more foreign leaders congratulating Biden on his win (source), and business leaders urging Trump to concede (source). Finally, Trump himself confirmed that he would leave if he loses the Electoral College vote (source).

There is still the danger that Trump could attempt a coup, but all signs currently point to the normal transition of power proceeding over the next 50 days: On December 14th the electors will cast their votes, on January 6th those votes will be counted in Congress, and on January 20th Biden will be inaugurated. In that time, it is likely that Trump will continue his assault on American democracy, but without collaborators, a coup attempt is not possible.

We will continue to monitor the situation and will update the Coup-o-meter for developments that could have an impact on the peaceful transition of power.

In light of the events of the past 24 hours, the Coup-o-meter has moved one notch toward democracy.

The GSA has finally begun the work necessary for a peaceful transition of power, a move that has been delayed at least in part by Trump's refusal to concede. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have certified their votes. While a few Republicans in Congress have acknowledged Biden's win, many continue to deny the results publicly which will have a lasting impact on the strength of our democracy.

We remain concerned about the continued attempts to disallow votes and more generally to sow distrust in the country’s voting systems. However, we believe the immediate danger of a coup is receding. We continue to monitor the situation closely.

The Coup-o-Meter has moved down one notch today with the announcement by major news agencies that Biden is now projected to win the presidency. While there are more steps to take before a peaceful transition of power can take place, this is a strong indication that momentum is against a coup.

The Coup-o-Meter has moved down one notch. This movement reflects the current momentum: While the president continues to claim victory (source), the collaborators that would make a coup possible are not coming to his aid at this time. Specifically, we note that the PA Senate and House majority leaders have stated publicly that they will not have any hand in appointing electors for the state (source), court cases are generally siding against the president (source, source, source), and ballots continued to be counted in a deliberative manner. While the president remains defiant, there is always the possibility of momentum shifting. We will continue to monitor the situation.

Pennsylvania House GOP drops planned “Election integrity” plan. Source

Twelve governors release joint statement on threats to American democracy. Source

Senate passes resolution reaffirming commitment to peaceful transition of power. Source