In less than 24 hours, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. This will happen under some of the most pervasive security protocols the U.S. capital has ever seen and in the shadow of an attempted coup. While the circumstances are troubling, it is important to note the transition of power, even if it was not peacefully achieved.

Some of the evidence of the damage done is clear: 78% of Republicans do not trust that the 2020 election was fair and even more do not recognize Trump's responsibility for inciting the mob attack on Congress (source). Additionally, a majority of Republican members of the current Congress continue to lie to the public and the press about the election results, undermining the Constitution they are sworn to support and defend.

Some evidence is still emerging: in particular, details on how the January 6th attack was planned and executed and how many past and present members of law enforcement and the military participated. The way the three branches of the US government deal with the aftermath of this coup attempt and how seriously Republicans and Democrats deal with those involved will be part of what determines whether or not another coup attempt happens in the coming years. Just as important, though, will be the actions of the US public and whether we join in the project of rebuilding our democracy.

We are monitoring the actions of many officials, agencies, and public figures in the aftermath of last week's organized mob attack on the certification of the electoral vote count at the Capitol building. We remain concerned about the continued denial of basic facts by a significant number of Republican elected officials that could provide justification for further coup attempts in the coming weeks. The participation by off-duty law enforcement officers in the January 6th attack and the evidence of planning for future violence are cause for continued vigilance. Any continued denial of the election results by public officials or media figures should be viewed as incitement to violence and a serious threat to our democracy.

The immediate threat of a coup has passed and the ceremonial process of counting electoral votes that our Constitution requires was successfully completed this morning. However, the fact that the President of the United States incited a coup attempt and continues to spread the same lies that he used to encourage the mob that descended on the Capitol building yesterday means that the danger of an attempted coup has not passed.

The President, on his own, cannot attempt a coup. He requires collaborators. The President has declined, at every opportunity, to stand on the side of democracy. His collaborators in Congress have the same responsibility, and yesterday a majority of Republican members of Congress chose to side with him and further inflame the mob that attacked the very institution they are members of. (Source) Every member of Congress must condemn, without caveat, both the violence and the lies that were used to incite that violence.

Further, those who participated in this attempted coup must face consequences. This includes the members of the organized mob that breached the Capitol building and disrupted the transition of power in process. Allowing the President and his collaborators to remain in power invites further coup attempts and rewards autocratic behavior.

The Coup-a-meter measures a specific kind of danger: how close we are to an active coup. Just as a speedometer cannot tell you the temperature, right now the Coup-o-meter is not the best way to gauge the current threat to our democracy.

It is true that the President is actively working to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump's actions on his call with Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger were an illegal attempt to defraud the citizens of Georgia and deprive them of their votes. Trump has stated his intention to overturn election results that were not in his favor since before the election and he continues to look for collaborators who will help him do so. For Republicans, the challenge over the past two months has been finding ways to appear as if they are moving toward overturning the election without ever actually reaching that point. To do so, they have relied on lawsuits, recounts, and audits that they knew would fail but which would put off the inevitable: having to tell Trump that he lost the November election.

Wednesday, Republicans will interrupt the ceremonial electoral vote count. Doing so will have as much effect on the transition to a Biden administration as interrupting his inauguration on January 20th would have: none. But the point of this exercise is not to stop the transition, it is to put off the day when Trump turns on the members of his own party.

But if Trump is attempting to overturn the election, why not call this a coup? This is not a semantic argument: Tactics that are appropriate for one situation are often counterproductive in another. A coup is a rapid seizure of power that builds momentum and requires an immediate and broad response to overturn it. A general strike and mass demonstrations have proven to be effective tactics when fighting a coup, which is why our friends at Choose Democracy spent weeks training thousands of people around the country in these methods. But because this is not a coup, employing these tactics could backfire. If Trump has signaled anything in the past few months, it is that he is itching for a fight. Large street battles between those supporting and opposing Trump might well be the one thing that would justify domestic use of the military. Unlike the theatrics being employed by Republicans in Congress, military action could interrupt the peaceful transition of power.

There are good reasons not to be distracted by the current circus. The true goals of the Republican leadership are the same as they were last year and the year before that: depriving citizens of their right to vote. The current maelstrom of misinformation created by Trump will be put to use by Republicans in the coming months to limit early and mail-in voting, purge voter rolls, and enact voter ID laws. These are the threats to democracy that we face, and we should not let the interruption of ceremonies distract us from them.

This is theater with an intended audience of one.

President Trump appears to have lined up enough allies to slow – but not derail – the functioning of our democracy on January 6th. On that day, a joint session of Congress is charged by the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act of 1887 with counting each state's certified elector votes. Those votes have already been delivered to Vice President Pence. No competing slates of electors have been submitted.

Any objections to a state's electors must be made in writing by at least one member of the House and the Senate. It appears likely that such objections will be raised on January 6, 2021, just as they have been in the past, most recently in 2005. (Objections by House members without a supporting Senator are not rare: They have occurred in three of the five most recent elections. Source) At that point, each house will meet separately to debate those objections and then vote to confirm the state's electors. A majority of both the House and the Senate is necessary to disregard a state's electors. Both the House and the Senate will reject any and all objections and Vice President Pence will count the votes. January 6th may be a long and boisterous day, but it will change nothing. On January 20th, Joe Biden will be sworn in as President of the United States.

Senator Hawley knows that this is what will happen. Senator-elect Tuberville knows that this will happen. Representatives Jordan and Brooks know it, too. Vice President Pence definitely knows it will happen, and he's planning to get as far away from Trump as he can immediately after he plays his ceremonial role. Source. All objections on that day are bound to fail, but they serve a different purpose than a coup: to gain favor with a President who has already made it clear that he will do anything he can to end the careers of any Republican who fails to put on a good show.

On days like today, it is important to remember that President Trump floated the idea of buying Greenland not once, but multiple times, and in public. This does not mean he was not serious when he reportedly asked advisors about the possibility of seizing voting machines or declaring martial law, but what he says and what he can convince others to do are different things. Even the president cannot take action without support from his staff. Anonymous sources have said both that he has floated the idea of an attempted coup and that his proposals are not gaining traction with anyone in his government. (Source)

These reported discussions about overturning the election will not lead to a coup attempt without cooperation from Trump's staff, but that does not mean they are harmless – far from it. Floating these tactics, even if they are never acted upon, lends legitimacy to the idea of overturning elections using the military or other means and may make it easier to take such actions in the future.

Update: With the Electoral College vote complete, the march toward a presidential transition has taken another meaningful step forward. However, in light of the continued denial of reality by a significant number of Republican elected officials and calls for violence against public servants managing the election, the Coup-o-meter will not be moved toward democracy today.

This does not signify that we believe a coup is possible at this time. Biden will be sworn in as president on January 20, 2021, and he will become president of a weakened democracy on that day. We have real concerns about future elections – both nationally and locally – given the willingness of so many elected officials to abandon their pledges to support and defend the Constitution.

We are aware that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit asking that the Supreme Court intervene in the normal election procedures of four other states to prevent those states from certifying presidential electors. Additionally, 17 states have filed friend of the court briefs backing this lawsuit and many members of Congress have followed. This lawsuit is the latest in a long line of what we believe would more accurately be called publicity stunts. The actors know full well that they are destined to fail. In fact, one of the clearest methods for determining whether a Republican elected official will repeat Trump's lies about election irregularities is whether or not that official could actually do something to change the course of the election.

This is political theater, but we want to be clear we see no indication that this kind of political theater is less damaging to our country than a coup. It is only that a "Coup" is not an accurate description of what is being attempted. Instead, what we are seeing is the abandonment of democracy by Republicans who fear they will never win another election if Trump turns on them. The irony of undermining democracy in order to win future elections is not lost on us.

All that being said, we still see no reason to believe that Trump has lined up conspirators who have any actual power to change the results. We believe that Biden will be inaugurated on January 20, 2020, and no current actions have emerged to prevent that eventuality.

We continue to monitor the situation.

The headline tonight: Trump continues to be unable to find any collaborators to help him attempt a coup. It is important to note: A coup attempt would require collaborators with the power to help the president remain in power after January 20, 2021.

In any other election year, the events of the last few hours would have gone almost completely unnoticed because they are the normal process of a presidential election: Georgia's Secretary of State certified the state's vote and the Governor did as well, which he is required to do by law. Then, the leaders of Michigan's House and Senate announced that the "candidates who win the most votes win elections and Michigan’s electoral votes." It should be pointed out: doing otherwise would be both unconstitutional and illegal (source, source, source).

At this time we see no sign that any collaborators that could assist the president in attempting a coup will step forward. Trump is making a lot of noise, but he is not gaining any traction (source). In the meantime, he is doing damage to our country and democracy and putting people's lives at risk every day that he refuses to participate in the normal transition of power.

The last 48 hours have seen several troubling developments. While we considered moving the Coup-o-meter last night, public officials and voters have quickly headed off all actions that would put our democracy at greater risk. See below for details.

Certifying the vote in Michigan: During the Wayne County Board of Canvassers meeting on Nov. 17, the two Republican members of the board initially refused to certify the election results for the county, deadlocking a certification vote in a highly unusual move that could have disenfranchised the voters of the predominantly black city of Detroit. At the time of this vote, we began considering whether to move the Coup-o-meter, but events overtook our decision-making process. After the initial vote (but within the same meeting) hundreds of Wayne County residents who attended the meeting via Zoom responded in a public comment session. After hours of public outcry, both of the Republican members of the board reversed themselves, and the board certified the vote for Wayne County (source, source, source). It is important to note that even if the board's initial vote had stood, the State Board of Canvassers was scheduled to meet today and would likely have certified Wayne County's vote itself. That meeting has been canceled because all Michigan counties have now certified their votes (source).

This is what vigilance looks like. Anyone asking what they can do to protect our democracy during this time should look to the citizens of Wayne County and follow their lead.

An attempt to throw out ballots in Georgia: On Monday we began hearing that Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina had suggested to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger that all ballots from certain counties be tossed based on the rates of non-matching signatures in those counties. Raffensperger does not have the power to take such action and has pushed back on any and all efforts to disallow votes, but Sen. Graham's actions speak to a larger effort by Trump allies to delegitimize the electoral process in the middle of two of the most important Senate races in recent history (source, source).

The actions of voters in Wayne County and Brad Raffensburg in Georgia suggest that attacks on our democracy are being quickly shut down and all avenues for a seizure of power by Trump on January 20th remain closed at this time.

We continue to monitor the situation closely.

While there is no movement on the position of the Coup-o-meter, we are posting an update to provide context for recent events.

In the past week, multiple civilian DOD employees have been replaced with Trump loyalists. This kind of action is always troubling, but in these cases, there is no indication that it is part of a plan to use the military domestically in support of a coup. (Source).

The continued denial of Biden's victory by the GOP establishment is damaging to our democracy, but experts on the transfer of power in the US agree that Trump's strategies have an extremely small chance of succeeding, and those chances diminish each day as transition deadlines approach. (Source)

Additionally: Another state (Arizona) has been called by multiple media outlets for Biden. Trump continues to lose the vast majority of filed lawsuits and has now lost another law firm that had been representing him in these cases (Source)

At this time, Trump has no momentum and no viable path to override the will of the voters and retain power after January 20th. In the time he has left in office, much damage can be done to the US. The country's credibility domestically and internationally is being diminished, the pandemic is killing people and damaging the economy, and the next president will inherit a weakened federal bureaucracy less able to address these crises. The current situation is dangerous for the US, but there are no signs that the country is moving toward a coup.

We will continue to monitor the situation and update as events unfold.

An update to the Coup-o-meter: the meter has not moved toward democracy or toward a coup. There continue to be very troubling developments, but taken as a whole, the danger of a coup has not increased since our last update.

There are a number of reasons for concern: The refusal of the GSA to authorize funds for Biden's transition team, the refusal of prominent Republicans to recognize Biden as the winner of the election, and Barr's overturning of longstanding DOJ policies against investigating voter fraud before the results are certified. However, the immediate and public resignation of the Justice Department official who oversees investigations of voter fraud is exactly the kind of response that public officials should undertake in cases like this. These actions weaken our country and violate norms, but they do not reveal a path to seize control of the country.

The firing of Secretary Esper is troubling but appears to be retaliatory as opposed to part of a plan to activate the military domestically. This action was widely understood to be in the works before the election.

There are also a number of reasons for hope: votes continue to be counted deliberately and fairly, the media continues to treat Biden as the president-elect, and some prominent Republicans and many world leaders have congratulated Biden.

These are troubling days for democracy, but at this time we do not believe that momentum has shifted toward a coup. We will continue to monitor the situation.

8pm update: No movement on the Coup-o-meter
There has been lots of news today, and some of it includes the ingredients for a coup: Trump's continued declarations of victory (source), threats of violence meant to interrupt the counting of votes (source), and lawsuits filed to disallow valid votes (source). But here's what is missing: Momentum. A coup requires collaboration from members of the media, the judiciary, and other allies, and so far, these are absent. This is a dangerous moment for our country, but at this time, a coup is not in progress. We will continue to monitor the situation.